Bob Browning's blog

From my latest newsletter.

I have commented before about the impact of netbooks, these small cheap laptops that you can buy in Robert Dyas for £167.  This type of device is new and the technology  is changing fast.  It is worth keeping an eye on it.

They are about the size of a Filofax and generally come with a 7-10 inch screen that gives about 800×480 resolution plus a proper keyboard – albeit small.  They have an Intel Atom chip, a low power processor aimed at small computers and PDAs.  They often come with flash memory (the kind you find in a camera) rather than a hard disk.    They run Windows XP or Unix (Linux inevitably) but not Vista. The also come with built-in wi-fi.  Expect mobile internet connectivity to be built in when more upmarket devices become available.

So you can open it up in Starbucks (without having to clear the table or knock over your neighbour’s coffee) and check your email or surf the web – with a proper screen and keyboard and a proper computer – albeit small. 

What is coming

Right now they are a bit – well, clunky.  But the Atom chip is less than a year out of production.   The first big change is a new chip – the ARM chip. This is the same type of chip that you find in your mobile phone.  It has an interesting history going back to the British company that brought you the BBC Micro.  The ARM Holdings company is a British success story.  It is in the business of designing chips and the ARM processor range has shipped over ten billion processors since the company was formed.

The ARM chip has some big advantages over the Atom chip for netbooks:

• It is designed from the start to use every microwatt of power.  ARM based netbooks are predicted to run for much longer than the atom chip.
• Because it uses less power you don’t need a fan or heat sink.  So it is thinner and lighter.
• It is also cheap.

But it doesn’t run regular Windows.  So ARM-based netbooks  are mainly running Linux.  Some might run Windows CE/Windows Mobile (a cut-down operating system dating back to 1996) or even Android (the Mobile Phone operating system developed by Google).

For Intel atom processors, the next version of Windows (version 7) should run on these devices as its memory requirement is smaller. However the big issue here is cost.  These devices are going to be cheap, and the Windows license will be a significant part of the cost.  Linux is free, so it is a big hurdle.

You may find that to keep the cost down netbooks will ship with Windows 7 ‘starter edition’. This will be cheap, but only allow a maximum of three applications running simultaneously. I don’t know what counts as an application, but is Skype, Chrome and Outlook really going to be it? I bet you have an ‘upgrade to a real operating system’ button every time you try and run application number 4, which is not going to play well.   

So there is a ‘Windows problem’.

It doesn’t  run on what will be a very popular, maybe the market leading, ARM chip.  On the Intel atom, it has to be incorporated in devices where cost is a big issue and the competition is free.  Microsoft’s solution is a cut-down operating system (the starter edition) which is not going to win any popularity contests. 

Linux could win this one. 

Peering into the future

The thing is this.  I don’t know about you but I have never liked the idea of carrying a brick around in my pocket. The likes of the Blackberry are to my mind a huge and unsatisfactory compromise between the need for a phone, where smallness and lightness are key, and the need for a computer, where you need a readable screen and a qwerty keyboard. 

The next generation of netbooks are just what I need.  They are small and light enough to carry in my rucksack without noticing the weight or space.  (Those of the female persuasion may put it in their handbag.)  I can get it out any time with mobile internet and use a real computer with a real keyboard and screen to surf the web, send an instant message, use a word processor or spreadsheet, or work with my email.  With its built-in webcam and microphone, I can have real video calls via skype that are free. 

In fact in ten years’ time your children are going to look at you as if you are crazy (they will do this anyway so maybe not an issue) when they see you texting with your mobile phone.  With eyes rolled heavenwards, they will languidly pass you their ultra thin, ultra small, ultra cheap netbook and suggest you save your fingers.

I think current netbooks are a rather clunky version of what, in time, will sell in quantities between PCs and mobile phones – i.e. in the billions of devices.  Now here is the important thing.  For sure they will be the first computers our children own and will therefore set expectations in the next generation of PC users.

Without a Microsoft operating system?