The International Energy Agency (IEA) produces oil production forecasts which are used by governments around the world to plan their future energy needs. The last forecast showed a growth from 84 million barrels per day (Mb/d) to 106 Mb/d in 2030 which is exactly the production required to meet the expected growth in GDP over this period.
So that is all right then.
The University of Uppsala in Sweden has taken a close look at these figures and finds that they are based on recovery rates which exceed, by a large margin, the recovery rates ever achieved with any previous oilfield development. Plugging in more realistic recovery rates they show a slow decline in world production to 75 Mb/d in 2030.
It depends how fast you develop the fields of course and they have used different assumptions that move the peak oil date from now till 2013. However whatever assumptions they make the 2030 figure always comes out around 70-75 Mb/d.
It looks as if the IEA has simply projected requirements for oil and assumed that they would magically be met as they always have in the past. However Uppsala has news for them – the stuff can run out and is running out.
This is a massive difference and given that big capital energy projects have a very long lead time, this level of error can blow the government’s plans out of the water. Like the efforts on climate change, we have a choice.
- Bite the bullet and do something – even if it is expensive
- Put our heads in the sand and hope it comes out all right.
With todays miserable excuse for a government, guess which one we will go for.
No prizes.
Bob Browning's blog 
Leave a comment